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Business Club December 6th news

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on December 5 was 7087.5 yuan / ton, up 1.58% compared with the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on Thursday (28), up 8.62%%% compared with the same period last year. On December 5, the PVC commodity index was 89.81, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 10.19% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 54.13% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

In terms of products: the fourth quarter is the off-season of consumption, but the off-season of PVC market is not light, the prices are rising and the heat is not decreasing. On November 29, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream has broken through 7000 yuan, and in December, the PVC market is still rising. However, PVC futures recently rose and began to fall, driving the trend of the spot market. At present, PVC spot is still tight, social inventory in East and South China continues to decline, and the overall social inventory is still at a low level. North China and East China are in the south, and the centralized maintenance of production enterprises is completed in autumn. The starting load of the industry has increased, and the supply has increased, which has a certain role in alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand. At present, some manufacturers offer slightly loose, but the strong price sentiment is still strong, the industry is optimistic, and actively enter the market. However, the downstream demand is rigid and the actual transaction is tepid. The support of raw material end is weak. In the short term, PVC will mainly digest the increase in the early stage, and there is still the possibility of further reduction in some areas. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 5, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6750-7180 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7120-7200 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7120-7220 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 7260-7350 yuan / ton. Prices across the region were high and consolidated, with some prices down slightly.

In terms of Futures: Recently, PVC futures fell sharply. On December 4, 2001, the main contracts fell by 40 points to close at 6710 yuan / ton, reducing their positions by 9378 to 322000. At the end of the day, K-line opened low and fell by 2.55%, with poor market trend.

Industry chain: crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate broadly in the near future. Crude oil stockpiles in the United States will drop sharply, coupled with OPEC release to extend production reduction expectations. Oil prices will soar, and the long-term trend will continue to be under pressure due to the weakness of global demand. Ethylene fell. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The import of PVC downstream products decreased, and the increase of export also supported the price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 5, 2019, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, among which natural rubber (13245, 10.00, 0.08%) rose (0.29%). There are two kinds of goods falling on a month on month basis, and LDPE (- 0.31%) and PVC (- 0.28%) are the top two. The average price of this day was - 0.02%.

PVC analysts of the business club think: Recently, PVC futures have fallen sharply, which is bad for the market. In addition, the maintenance of production enterprises has been completed, and the supply has increased, which eases some supply-demand conflicts. However, the tight supply situation needs time to ease. In the short term, PVC will mainly digest the previous gains and consolidate at a high level, and some regions may continue to reduce.