PVC Futures May Rise Later
Gold net
Release time: 11-2911:59 excellent original author
The main PVC futures 2001 contract rose 2.1% on Thursday, with the possibility of rising later.
On last Thursday, the main 2001 contract of PVC futures rose all the way after opening, closing up 2.09%. The highest price in the session was 6905 yuan / ton, a new high in nearly half a year.
Downstream demand picked up and PVC prices rose sharply
This year, the price trend of PVC is greatly affected by the supply side. In April, an explosion occurred in Dongxing Chemical PVC workshop of Inner Mongolia Yidong group. The expectation of tight supply caused by the upstream accident led to the high price of PVC.
The upstream high price makes the downstream income reduce or even lose, so the operating rate is low, the demand for normal production is constantly delayed, resulting in PVC inventory can't fall back to the normal level. With the passage of time, the demand is insufficient, the price of PVC gradually goes down, and the downstream began to actively replenish production in October.
After entering the winter, the downstream market performance of PVC exceeded expectations, making the inventory continuously reduced. Due to the production demand in the downstream, the delivery speed is not reduced, and PVC inventory continues to decrease. At present, the enterprises in the main production area have no inventory pressure, the pre-sale orders are good, the phenomenon of queuing to pick up goods is prominent, and the quotation is firm. The market in North China is in a stable and fluctuating situation, and the social inventory in East China and South China continues to decrease, and the digestion speed is accelerated. After nearly seven months, the social inventory of PVC fell from a high of 443800 tons to 80200 tons, reducing 363600 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year.
Recently, the supply of PVC is insufficient compared with the normal level, and the capacity of PVC supplying social inventory is limited. The supply of PVC goods is tight, which has a certain relationship with the decline of unit operation level. After the centralized maintenance of the upstream plant, some PVC units have not yet recovered to the normal production capacity level, and the tight supply will continue in the short term.
The decrease of inventory and the recovery of downstream demand make the market have high expectations for PVC in the future, and PVC futures have a large increase in the near future. After reaching a new low of 6285 yuan / ton for nearly half a year on October 18, the price of the main 2001 contract of PVC futures rose rapidly all the way, accumulatively rising 8.7% from the recent low point at the closing, and the price rose 3.6% in the last four trading days, with a significant acceleration, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand has been deepened.
As of November 21, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6640-6900 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 6730-6830 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 6740-6830 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 7000 yuan / ton. Prices have risen to varying degrees.
