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November 18, 2019 09:34:28 source: global plastics

The latest October data released by the International Bureau of statistics shows that the downward pressure on the economy is still high. In October 2019, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.7% on a year-on-year basis, 1.1 percentage points lower than that in September. From the year-on-year perspective, the added value of industries above Designated Size continued to decline in the past two years, indicating that the economic downturn continued.

The U.S. economy has been outstanding. For three consecutive months, the manufacturing PMI of ISM was below the boom and bust line of 50. The initial value of quarterly GDP fell and consumption fell, which made the global slowdown in economic growth very likely to enter into "resonance". The Sino-U.S. trade war and other uncertain factors increased downward pressure.

In October, the value-added of chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry increased by 3% year-on-year, while that of rubber and plastic products industry increased by 3.9% year-on-year. Obviously, the growth rate of downstream products industry is faster than that of upstream raw materials. The difference between the growth rate of the two industries narrowed for three consecutive months, because the decline rate of products industry in October is faster than that of raw materials. In October last year, the price of PE, PP and other plastic raw materials began to decline. The growth rate of rubber and plastic products was significantly lower than that of raw materials. Generally speaking, with the decline of the price of raw materials, the cost of end products decreased. From the perspective of the growth of plastic products, the current situation of the product industry is slightly better than last year.

The trade war between China and the United States cannot be ended. Global trade has been greatly affected, which not only affects the U.S. economic downturn, but also more affects China's economic growth. In terms of industrial export delivery value, the logistics of chemical raw materials and chemical products industry has declined year-on-year or cumulative year-on-year, and the more serious is that both the year-on-year and cumulative ratio are negative, and the expansion trend is intensified. The rubber and plastic products industry is slightly better, showing a negative value year on year, and the cumulative ratio is close to a negative value. The data shows that the Sino US trade war affects the export of China's chemical industry and rubber and plastic industry. The more uncertain the trade situation between China and the United States is, the more cautious the enterprises are expecting to reduce the current production. After all, the plastics industry still has a certain share of exports to the United States. Instead, PE and other raw materials are imported into the United States more.

In the case of macro downturn, it is better to follow the trend. In terms of the ex factory price index of synthetic materials and plastic products, they continued to decline year on year, and there is no bottom signal yet.