PVC powder: Seasonal decline in inventory, weak balance between supply and demand
After the Spring Festival, the inventory of PVC powder will increase and then decrease, which is generally the same as the trend of inventory change in 2024, but the accumulation stage is relatively mild. At present, the PVC powder industry has entered a weak equilibrium stage. The problem of high inventory has been priced by the market. There is not much contradiction in the industry. In the later stage, the market will fluctuate under the macro impact.
Recently, the fundamentals of PVC have entered a weak balance, which is mainly reflected in the fact that the inventory has been out of stock for two consecutive weeks. In the short term, there is little contradiction in the industry, and the market drive is not strong. After the Spring Festival, social inventory first increased and then decreased. Judging from the changes in social inventory, according to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, as of March 6, the total inventory (original sample) of East China/South China was 471,900 tons, an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.67%. The total inventory (new sample) of East China/South China is 819,800 tons, down 0.29% month-on-month, which can decline for two consecutive weeks.
Judging from the comparison of inventory changes after the holiday, the East China/South China sample warehouse (original samples) in 2024 accumulated for four consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival, and then entered the warehouse for six weeks. During this period, there was only a small accumulation of inventory for one week, but the warehouse speed was slower. In terms of inventory changes in 2025, the East China/South China sample warehouse (original sample) accumulated for three consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival, began to go to the warehouse in the fourth week, and slightly accumulated in the fifth week, while the total inventory of East China/South China (new samples) accumulated for three consecutive weeks, and then left the warehouse for two consecutive weeks. Judging from the year-on-year changes, the inventory of East China/South China sample warehouse (original sample) is slightly lower year-on-year, and the East China/South China sample warehouse (new sample) has no year-on-year data.
On the whole, judging from the changes in PVC inventory after the Spring Festival, the accumulation of storage for three consecutive weeks after the holiday is relatively mild, and the storage time is one week earlier than last year. Moreover, from the perspective of seasonal laws, the market is still expected to be slightly out of storage in the next 4-5 weeks.
The main reason for the change in inventory this year is that, on the one hand, the overall is in line with the seasonal law. In the first three weeks, the accumulated inventory was due to the slow recovery of demand and the high supply. After the fourth week, the downstream returned to normal. The orders for soft products were good, the orders for hard products were slightly worse, and the enthusiasm for purchasing recovered, so the inventory also began to go to the warehouse. The second aspect is that the overhaul of ethylene PVC enterprises in February this year was relatively concentrated, resulting in a lower start-up load rate of the PVC industry in February 2025 than that of the same period last year, and the output of PVC in February was also slightly lower than that of the same period last year. Thirdly, the absolute price of PVC in January and February this year is lower than that of the same period last year. The export price has a certain advantage. The export order has been relatively good, and the export diverts some sources of goods.
