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Spot goods: according to the understanding of traders (1) on Tuesday, East China Merchants quoted 6760 yuan / ton (- 20), South China 7000 yuan / ton (- 20), and February, the source of goods quoted 6800-6850 yuan / ton; spot supply continued to pick up, and the downstream small volume procurement year later, the overall transaction was generally (2) PVC manufacturers quoted a steady decline

Market: the main contract closed at 6535 yuan / ton (+ 20) in a narrow range in 2005 night, with an increase of 2639 positions to 234000.

Upstream Carbide: according to Zhuo Chuang, the quotation of carbide in Wuhai area on Tuesday was 2545 yuan / ton (+ 20). Shandong region offers 3070 yuan / ton (+ 20). Calcium carbide enterprise shipments are not balanced, prices are rising or there are plans to rise

Supply: according to Zhuo Chuang statistics, the starting load of domestic PVC enterprises increased slightly last week, the overall starting load of PVC was 79.84%, up 0.94% month on month.

Inventory: according to Zhuo Chuang, last week's social inventory rose 44% month on month, down 25.56% year on year;

Import and export situation: last week, prices in Asia rose steadily, CFR China and CFR India remained stable, and CFR Southeast Asia rose $20 / ton. Currently, the ethylene import window is still open.

Logic driven: (1) last week's overall operating rate continued to rise, supply continued to rise, last week's social inventory continued to fall (Zhuo Chuang + 44%), and now it has entered the stock accumulation cycle. (2) due to the operating rate continued to fall in the lower reaches of North China, the lower reaches of East China and South China maintained a higher operating rate, but with the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand will gradually weaken. (3) calcium carbide prices have risen steadily, and the gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method has fallen; liquid alkali continued to fall Continue weak finishing, chlor alkali comprehensive gross profit generally (4) PVC spot continued to weaken, the basis has narrowed. The demand side is still expected to turn weak. At present, due to the deep discount of the 05 contract, the overall big drop space is still small, and PVC is weak and volatile.

Strategy suggestions: short-term wait-and-see, mid line high sell short