Spot Pre-sale Is Still Average, PVC Night Market Fluctuates In A Narrow Range
Spot goods: according to the understanding of traders (1) on Friday, East China Merchants quoted 6820 yuan / ton (- 30), South China 7050 yuan / ton (- 50), and February supply 6850 yuan / ton; spot supply has picked up, but the price is still high, and the price of downstream PVC manufacturers continued to fall back years ago.
Market: the main contract closed at 6500 yuan / ton (+ 5) in a narrow range in 2005 night, with positions increased by 1994 to 232000 (unilateral).
Upstream Carbide: according to Zhuo Chuang, the quotation of carbide in Wuhai area on Friday is 2505 yuan / ton (-). The quotation in Shandong is 3050 yuan / ton (+ 15). The market has raised prices a lot.
Supply: according to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, the starting load of domestic PVC enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall starting load of PVC was 79.84%, up 0.94% month on month
Inventory: according to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, the social inventory turned around last week, with a 24.24% month on month increase and a 43.88% year-on-year decrease;
Import and export situation: last week, prices in Asia rose steadily, CFR China and CFR India remained stable, and CFR Southeast Asia rose $20 / ton. Currently, the ethylene import window is still open.
Logic driven: (1) last week's overall operating rate continued to rise, and supply gradually picked up. Last week's inventory of social warehouses fell. (2) the operating rate of the lower reaches of North China continued to fall due to weather problems. The lower reaches of East China and South China maintained a high operating rate, and the overall demand was stable, and the demand will gradually weaken near the new year. (3) the price of calcium carbide rose steadily, and the gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method fell back. The weak consolidation of liquid alkali continued, and chlorine Alkali comprehensive gross profit generally (4) PVC spot continued to weaken, the basis has narrowed. The gross profit of calcium carbide PVC in the year is on the high side; the weak demand side is still expected to be negative. At present, due to the deep discount of the 05 contract, the overall slump space is still small, and PVC is weak and volatile.
Strategy suggestions: short-term wait-and-see, mid line high sell short
