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China is still on track to meet its 2025 goal of peak coal consumption even after missing emissions targets in the first half of 2021 and policy missteps that resulted in a severe power supply crunch, according to analysts.

But the power crisis may invite some resistance from sceptical delegates at the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) if, as many expect, Beijing commits to accelerating its environmental efforts at the event in Glasgow.

“If a result of these power shortages in 2021 is that the 2025 coal peak date is pushed back a year or two, that would be a serious problem, but we haven’t seen any indication that this is the plan,” said David Fishman, a manager at power sector consultancy The Lantau Group.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has committed China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, to hitting peak coal consumption in four years’ time to support its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. He announced plans to stop building overseas coal power plants last month, and many observers expect China to make at least one more major environmental announcement during COP26.